We have no experience with these dramatic changes that have already begun. Below replacement level birth rates, smaller young cohorts entering jobs marketings, the “bulge” of the prior baby booms aging into retirement – where will future labor come from?
What happens as cities shrink, housing goes vacant, and offices and factories lie empty?
Paul Ehrlich, author The Population Bomb, was wrong about everything – and was wrong within just a few years of his book’s publication. But this, together with the Club of Rome report in the 1970s, set the stage for government policy for the next 50 years. And like so many expert predictions, they turned out to be wrong.
More …
A Century’s Forecast: How the Global Population Is Likely to Change (msn.com)
By the end of the century, birth rates worldwide will be so low that most countries will not be able to support their existing population. At the same time, the leaders in terms of birth rate will be the poorest countries.
Global fertility rates to plunge in decades ahead, new report says (msn.com)
The fertility rate is the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime. Globally, that number has gone from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021 and will continue to drop to 1.59 by 2100, according to the new analysis, which was based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, a research effort led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The study was published Wednesday in the journal the Lancet.
Uh, that’s an IHME product, which makes it suspect. Their Covid predictions for Oregon were off in space, so badly, that by July of 2020, Oregon stopped using IHME models.
