Follow up: “The drought in the western U.S. could last until 2030”

Jun 26, 2023

In 2021:

In 2022:

West drought will continue and expand in the coming months, NOAA reports | CNN
Forecasts at the end of 2022 predict continuation of the drought through 2023 – Follow up: California drought likely to continue into 2023 – Coldstreams Skeptic

May 2023:

There has been substantial improvement in drought conditions across most of the West.
Drought improvements were a consequence of above-average precipitation, colder-than-average temperatures, and abundant snowpack.
Smaller areas of drought remain in parts of the Pacific Northwest, southern Nevada, and eastern New Mexico.
Reservoir levels in the Colorado River Basin continue to reflect multi-year deficits in precipitation.
The heavy western snowfall this past winter has ameliorated drought conditions across much of the western U.S. Drought development is predicted for eastern Washington, western Texas, eastern Kansas, and north-central New Mexico. Predictions for the upcoming fall and winter will be strongly influenced by the expected onset of El Niño conditions. El Niño conditions in winter favor an enhanced probability for above-normal precipitation for the southern third of the U.S., and below-normal precipitation for the northern third of the U.S.
2000-2022 in the Western United States: Compound low precipitation and high temperatures prevailed.
Temperature and precipitation relationship varies spatially. Higher temperatures recently led to more compound annual extremes.
Copious precipitation in the 2022–2023 wet season mildly alleviated precipitation deficits from the prior 23 years.
The 2022–2023 wet season has made Water Year 2023 one of the wettest water years since 2000.
2000-2023 wet interludes in the midst of drought occurred in the presence of anomalously high temperatures.
1980–1999 dry interludes in the midst of wetness occurred in the presence of lower temperatures compared to post-2000.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not always a reliable predictor of Basin precipitation. However, the highest precipitation years in California and the Upper Colorado Basin are related to strong El Niño events.