100% wrong:
As California’s 2022 water year ends this week, the parched state is bracing for another dry year — its fourth in a row.
So far, in California’s recorded history, six previous droughts have lasted four or more years, two of them in the past 35 years.
Despite some rain in September, weather watchers expect a hot and dry fall, and warn that this winter could bring warm temperatures and below-average precipitation.
Conditions are shaping up to be a “recipe for drought”: a La Niña climate pattern plus warm temperatures in the Western Tropical Pacific that could mean critical rain and snowstorms miss California, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA and The Nature Conservancy.
….
“I would still put my money on dry, even in the northern third of the state,” he said. “It’s not a guarantee. But if you were to see 50 winters like this one, most of them would be dry.”
Source: Four in a row: California drought likely to continue – CalMatters
NOAA’s winter forecast for winter 22-23 called for “Below” average precipitation in virtually all of California. How’d that forecast work out?
As of spring of 2023, California’s Governor has declared the drought over in the state. (As of April 2023, the State has recorded its deepest and wettest snow pack in history.)
The experts were wrong. Spectacularly wrong. Expert predictions of the future are nearly always wrong – by a lot. But today Expert Predictions are what we call Sciencetm
In the article, you can see allegations that the drought, up to last year, was linked to climate change. This winter’s heavy rains are linked to climate change. If a theory predicts all possible outcomes, what is the null hypothesis?
January 14, 2023 – In California, a drought turned to floods. Forecasters didn’t see it coming. (sfgate.com).
The forecasts were completely wrong, even the November 2022 update missed it. They appear to blame climate change for why their seasonal forecasts are not very good. Sigh.
