Reminder – the US fertility rate curve and the reason our new young worker cohort has shrunk:
The heart of the problem:
That curve follows the growth of the working age population from the Baby Boom (1965-1989) and the Baby Boom echo (about 1998 to 2008). The latter was half as high and half as long.
The Fed is attempting to crash the economy to “align the economy” with the available labor pool.
The falsely named “Inflation Reduction Act” funds billions of dollars of new projects – which increases demand for workers, which leads to higher wages paid to workers, which creates part of the inflationary environment.
What happens next:
- The “retirement age” for private sector workers will be raised to age 70.
- Immigration policy will change to import far more workers from abroad (this is a temporary fix since the demographic problem is global, there are not enough migrants to fulfill all demands)
- Expansion of social benefits programs (paid leave, childcare, etc) as the Democratic Party goal is to adopt Scandinavian social benefits and high taxes in the U.S.
- Adoption of automation and process improvements.
For some time, those commenting about the demographic problem have been called as “right wingers”. However, in early 2023, this concern is now mainstream. Does that make everyone a right-winger? Wild.
The author of the Bloomberg article is himself a globally experienced individual having studied in the U.S. (his Twitter profile says he is from Australia), worked out of Hong Kong, Jakarta, Sydney/Australia, and London and now based in the U.S. Another example of why Americans who do not have international skills are at a loss in a globalized workforce and a global economy.