In October 2022, we have an update from the CDC – the CDC is discontinuing publishing “case” disease models due to their (repeated) low reliability:
Forecasts of New Cases
- Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. While they have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, even the ensemble forecasts have not reliably predicted rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.
- Evaluation of case forecasts showed that more reported cases than expected fell outside the forecast prediction intervals for extended periods of time. Given this low reliability, COVID-19 case forecasts will no longer be posted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
- Case forecasts will continue to be collected and analyzed to assess potential changes in performance and to improve the science of forecasting.
- Forecasts of new and total deaths and new hospitalizations continue to be available. Previous case forecasts will still be available.
Ensemble and specific team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage. This assessment is available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval.
Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.
Source: COVID-19 Forecasts: Cases | CDC
- On this blog, I compared projections to future actuals and found disease models were useless.
- On this blog, I also noted smart phone tracking apps to detect Covid-19 contacts would work poorly, if at all.
A brain injured idiot got these things right while highly credentialed experts got these wrong. Why?
More on smart phones here.
