(Part 5 has not yet been finished)
Korea’s fertility rate is now 0.81 and the country’s population will be cut in half within 50 years.
When the fertility rate falls below 2.1, populations begin to shrink. Numerous countries have hit this level from the mid 1980s onwards, and most now at that level in 2022 with the remaining countries to hit that target within years.
Essentially all of the EU is in negative population growth since the 1990s
The United States
The rise from mid-1980s to peak in 2008 is the “Baby boom” echo – as the children of the post WW2 Baby Boom had their families.
Today, the US fertility rate is well below the replacement level.
Immigration to the U.S.?
Europe is also seeking immigrants to address its declining population.
The U.S. will expand immigration options for the same reason.
But where will they come from? China is also below replacement level and India will soon be there too.
This means our future will be very different from recent decades. We will also see a far greater development of and use of automation everywhere.
Future Families
Many young people in the U.S. and Europe are choosing not to have families.
They say the end of the world is near, due to climate change and having kids is irresponsible.
Another generation has just gone through a pandemic filled with staggering nonsensical public health messaging based on fear and hysteria. We nowhave entire generations filled with fear – a recent poll in the U.S. which found that 51% of voters between age 18 and 35 believe humanity may cease to exist in ten years. There is no scientific evidence for such claims – none. (More here.)
With fears fueled by “Climate crisis” reporting (reminder – this terminology was invented by The Guardian and standardized by the Columbia Journalism School and did not appear in any official scientific documents – more on the Orwellian propaganda around Climate here) – this leads to half of young adults believing most human life will be wiped out within ten years and many are now on anti-anxiety medications.
The effect of this is the fertility rate is likely to fall much further and faster.
Good or Bad?
Is negative population growth good or bad?
It is good in the sense that demand on resources will go down. Future generations will live in a less crowded world. Things like traffic will become less of problem. Carbon gas output will go down, naturally.
In the near term, the population peak and then decline will also have negative effects.
We are seeing these effects now in the “staff shortage” issue – there is a global shortage of labor, and this is going to get worse.
I am on the tail side of the baby boom generation – we have lived our lives in the midst of the largest fertility rates in history (after taking deaths into account – child death rates were enormous 100 years ago). We attended public schools in the 1960s and 1970s to which wings of “portable classrooms” were brought in. Some of us attended schools with “split schedules” – or staggered group start and end times to spread the students in the school throughout the day.
We entered college and the workforce at a time of maximum competition for jobs and opportunities.
Today, we are faced with six-month lead times to reserve a camping spot in a park, long lines at many stores, long lines to enter venues – basically “peak population” effects. Simultaneously, demand for health care services will increase – as costs rise even higher due to lack of staff.
Those who are young now will begin to see the benefits of reduced population within 10-20 years. This will be a net positive for them on many levels – improved education and job opportunities, for example. We are already seeing this with higher salaries and new work options including remote work.
