The Expertstm predicted a winter seasonal surge in South Africa.
Reality (June 23, 2022)
They made no changes to public health and social measures (e.g. masks, schools, lock downs, social distancing) and cases went down.
The Expertstm were wrong. Their forecast for a winter surge in South Africa was translated into a winter surge in the U.S. in ’22/’23. We won’t know that outcome until 2023, of course. But going to take a risk and say Expertstm will have been wrong about that too.
Chart from WHO, taken August 12, 2022:
