My observations

Public health experts failed in numerous pronouncements:

  • 15 days to flatten the curve became 15+ months.
  • ICL said lock downs can only work for a short period of time, therefore, they said we could temporarily lock down periodically and keep the waves small. How did that turn out?
  • ICL forecast 2.2 million dead in the US by last August. This was the basis for major policy choices in the U.S.
  • UW IHME models in first half of 2020 were off in space yet were the basis for major policy decisions
  • Public health experts failed to predict the crash in cases that began just after Christmas and was obvious by early January.
  • Pubic health experts predicted that by April we would see a “tsunami” of new cases, that we were in the “eye of the hurricane”. The CDC Director said she had a sense of “impending doom”. In reality, the slight ripple in the epicurve appears to have peaked two weeks ago.
  • The Director of the CDC said in July 2020 that if we wore masks, this would be over with within weeks.
  • A study published in September said that based on a model, if just 70% wore masks, the pandemic would be over with. Even in no-mask mandate states, up to 70% wore masks. Cases then rose by a factor 10x or more even in states with 94-98% compliance.

While I say I do not make predictions, I do make some but don’t post them because I am a brain injured idiot. For reasons I will not get into, I did predict we would see a sharp downturn in January. I also predicted that the “4th wave” would be a ripple. but I am not an expert – I am a brain injured idiot so I do not share such things on line. I do, however, have skin in the game and have made successful investment decisions based on my own analysis – even if I am a brain injured idiot.