Disease model projections have proven close to worthless. Perhaps like a stopped clock, they might get close once in a while.

Here is another set of models that blew up into space – showing the October model projections for deaths in England versus actual number of deaths (black line).

The models might be a little off …


The grotesque failure of disease models may discourage people from believing in other model output, including climate change models.

Coldstreams Skeptic