COVID-19 in the United States | Data USA

Page down to see the 14-day trend for each U.S. state. Most states are trending downwards.

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Source: COVID-19 in the United States | Data USA

The U.S. today has dropped to a 7-day moving average of 42,000 new cases/day, down from about 60,000/day a month ago.

Numerous explanations as to “why” are offered including social distancing, school closures, face masks, closure of bars and restaurants and more.

Unfortunately, there are no control groups and we have no way of knowing what measures work, or do not work, or how much effect they have. Some past papers indicate some measures we have adopted are only effective for a few weeks, are not sustainable, do not work at all, or work very poorly. Some recent papers say, for example, that lock downs were not effective, or not effective in terms of their cost.

When I see articles quoting “experts” telling what is working, all I see is much hand waving by people making guesses. Some will say, “See, region X did Y and it worked!” But it is so easy to find region Z that also did Y and had a bad outcome. It is also easy to find a region X that did Y, had a great outcome, until it didn’t work anymore and things went down hill – the time dimension plays a critical role that is nearly always ignored.