Electric vehicles: Will take decades to overtake ICE vehicles

For obvious reasons, actually:

GM CEO Mary Barra believes it will take decades for EVs to become more common than cars with an internal-combustion engine under the hood

Source: GM sees an electric future, but it’ll take decades to get there – Roadshow

I while back I read the Green New Deal which proposes to replace the entire oil infrastructure of the United States in just ten years. A moment’s thought illustrates that is not physically possible.

  • It is taking ten years for Portland just to update a major water line and water plant.
  • The California high speed rail project was launched in 2008, with construction starting in 2015. Phase 1 is to be completed by 2033. That’s 25 years. For a single railway. And it will not even be complete.
  • Think of other “big” projects and how many years – or decades – they’ve taken to complete. It took 2 1/2 years just replace a 100 yard, 4 lane roadway bridge over a local river.
  • To replace all automobiles, trucks, all gas stations, all airliners, all home and industrial uses of natural gas or fuel oil (including home heating) and create an all new infrastructure would take decades, not ten years.

The idea that everyone will junk their gas vehicles within ten years, and adequate electrical infrastructure will be available to replace all oil applications is magical thinking. It is not physically feasible.

EVs cannot replace many applications of gas vehicles yet. The technology is not there yet.

If it takes ten years to update a single water line and water plant, how can we possibly replace and update the nation’s entire infrastructure, nationwide in the same amount of time?

The re-allocation of people and resources to a project this grand would eliminate nearly all of the other parts of the economy during this ten years. Not going to happen in ten years.

GM is being realistic. EVs will continue to be adopted – but it will take time.