This made me laugh hysterically
Epidemiological disease models have proven worse than astrology. They are constructed with the integrity of alchemy. ICL has been ground zero for generating garbage models, producing output off in space,…
Cancel culture
I recently learned about people who lost jobs because they Liked a social media post – the post was okay but the person posting it was not. This, in turn,…
Oregon’s disease models wrong for 11 out of 13 projections
Oregon only does short term disease modeling (about 4 weeks), via the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, WA. Their model projections have been wrong – way wrong – 11…
More time shifted data delays in epiastrology data
Note: Due to a delay in laboratory reporting, OHA received a large quantity of approximately 3,000 negative electronic laboratory results (ELRs) on Monday. The tests are from June 1, 2020…
And just like that: Timing of data reporting is a problem
As I discovered, and informed my state’s public health office about, the time shifting of death reports had incorrectly moved peaked deaths from Dec 9th into January. The state agreed…
Scientists warn over misuse of models
I’m so old, I remember Neil Ferguson’s projection of 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. by last spring, and Christopher Murray’s projection that NY would run out of ventilators (so…
Masks made no difference: “Transmission of COVID-19 in 282 clusters in Catalonia, Spain: a cohort study – The Lancet Infectious Diseases”
Epidemiologists remain stuck: Second, we did not find any evidence of decreased risk of transmission in individuals who reported mask use. Although this finding collides with the evidence reported elsewhere,8…
Remember the Sturgis, South Dakota “Superspreader event”?
The Sturgis South Dakota motorcycle rally was held August 6-15, 2020. We were assured that this would be a major super spreader event. This was emphasized by a study predicting…
Epidemiologists panic as cases continue to plummet
Kinsa Model This Week Kinsa Model Forecast Next Week Forecasts falling cases in all but 2 states. Both states had pretty strict rules. As the surge in good news continues,…