(With AI search assistance)
From CDC’s Feb 6, 2026 preliminary burden update (Koumans et al., JAMA Intern Med. Jan 5, 2026), CDC provides modeled ranges of COVID‑19 illnesses for Oct 1, 2022–Sep 30, 2024 and weekly updated estimates thereafter.
- Estimated illnesses Oct 2022–Sep 2023: 43.6 million (95% uncertainty interval 25.3–64.0 million).
- Estimated illnesses Oct 2023–Sep 2024: 33.0 million (95% UI 20.2–49.0 million).
Using those illness totals plus earlier reported/estimated infections through 2022 (CDC earlier estimated ≈80% infected by late‑2022 via seroprevalence/modeling), the CDC’s modelled additions for 2023–2024 imply a cumulative‑infection range by end‑2024 roughly in the ballpark of 75–90% of the U.S. population (accounting for uncertainty and overlaps). Including smaller additional waves through early 2026 would keep the plausible cumulative range approximately ~75–90% by 2025–2026.
The vaccine was originally approved on the basis of achieving 95% prevention of infection. Over time, that estimated percent began dropping and the definition of success changed to prevented severe disease, then prevented hospitalization and mortality.
Ultimately, it appears that nearly everyone has had Covid-19 at least once.
