On social media, most posts about the dropping fertility rate blame U.S. politics, U.S. housing costs, U.S. inflationary costs, the costs of childcare – pretty much everything. However, this phenomenon is global, not just the U.S.
In January 2026, some economists estimated the world’s population may start to decrease as soon as the early 2030s – decades earlier than previously forecast. This leads, for now, to a smaller, younger generation, simultaneously with a large older cohort that will require more services – everything from health care to home repair services. Longer term, it means our current infrastructure buildout will be overbuilt – think fewer homes needed, fewer schools needed in just decades. We’ve never been in this situation before. This century will lead to ghost towns again.
The US fertility rate has been dropping for 200 years, except for the post WW2 boom (see second chart, below). Contemporary economic or political issues does not account for the 200 years drop nor the global drop.
