75% of the world’s population lives in countries with a fertility rate less than 2.1. Below that level, the population is shrinking.
Kind of.
In fact, for some countries, the fertility rate needs to be a fair amount greater than that – because of infant and child mortality. In other words, some places can have a high birth rate, but due to premature deaths as infants and children, their ability to grow their population is limited. In some places it may need a fertility rate of 2.2 or even 2.4 to continue growing their population.
Consequently, when premature deaths are counted, the global fertility rate average (think it is about 2.3 and falling) could already be at a level where population growth is halting or even shrinking.
