Virtually certain to be false: Nearly all Arctic sea ice could melt by the summer of 2027, scientists warn
It’s not falsifiable in many of our lifetimes – and the confidence interval is half a century – but it is scary:
But, whether or not it happens, remains up in the air. There’s uncertainty in projections based on climate models. So, it could happen between three years and 50 years.
“These projections are probabilistic, so we’re not saying an ice-free Arctic will happen in three to six years. It’s really three to 50 years.
They use SSP5-8.5 – (similar to RCP 8.5) – also known as the impossible/implausible scenario. The real world has trended below this scenario (thus not likely) and the scenario’s assumptions are likely physically impossible, say experts.
