The season ends on November 30th. The Michael Mann research group issued 2024 tropical cyclone prediction – forecasting 33 +/- named storms in 2024. Earlier in 2024, this received much publicity.
The actual number of named storms came to 18. There has been no follow up by the media about the difference between the forecast and the actual number.
We know from propaganda studies that the first “fact” someone hears is the one they likely remember, even if the “fact” is later shown to be wrong, and the propaganda target receives corrected information. This is not how to do climate communications.
The Forecast for 2024
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season: University of Pennsylvania Forecast | Mann Research Group
The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
- Late October, experts forecast 3 more storms: Hurricane trackers warn up to three storms will form that could hit US
- Hurricane season isn’t over. Experts predict a final surge of storms and maybe even a December cyclone.
REALITY:
Actual number of named storms: 18.
