As economic progress marches on, someone born today is very likely to have a better future than someone born 20 years ago, or 40 years ago or 60 years ago – and this is a good thing: How Baby Boomers Became the ‘Wealthiest Generation That Ever Lived’ (msn.com)
And thanks to the collapsing fertility rates, future housing prices will eventually fall and the demand for labor amid a shrinking labor pool is going to be quite good. (See Italy, Spain, Japan for examples.)
Housing construction in the U.S. was cut in half during the Great Recession of 2008-2010 and has still not fully recovered. At this time, immigration accounts for about 2/3ds of population growth – and when combined with still slower new home construction, does have an impact on home prices. There are two solutions: Either increase the housing supply or decrease demand. For now, construction may be catching up, but it may take years to have an impact on reducing prices. Long term, depending on U.S. immigration policy, the U.S. will eventually have a shrinking population – this is baked in due to demographic issues.
Investing in real estate makes sense, for at least the next 20-30 years (and likely a bit longer) but eventually a shrinking population leads to the situation in Japan, or Italy, where there are scores of vacant homes that cannot be sold.
The US Fertility rate fell to about 1.6 in 2023.
U.S. fertility rate chart
