I’ve been blaming UW’s IHME models for Oregon shutting down non-life threatening health care in 2020. In fact, Oregon was using IDM’s worthless disease model at the time, which was basically a random number generator: Oregon’s COVID-19 crystal ball is hazier than it looks | KOIN.com
The model had never been verified – but its random and wrong output was, at that time, used to set policies – such as incorrectly shutting down all non-life-threatening health care access for up to 3 months (depending on which county you lived in). At that time, I had a broken foot that was not eligible for diagnosis for 2 1/2 months – and the lack of treatment led to 4 1/2+ years of lower body complications (foot, ankle, knees, hip).
I had been monitoring the IHME models in the spring of 2020, which were also off in space. If they had not been off in space too, I would apologize for incorrectly saying Oregon was using the IHME models – but it wouldn’t have mattered.
It was the worthless IDM models that created Oregon’s fiasco of shutting down most health care. IDM – Institute of Disease Modeling, in Bellevue, WA, was funded by Bill Gates.
The disease model 3-week projections, by the end of the year, had the wrong sign in 11 out of 13 weekly projections. That is, the model projected a rise – but in the real-world cases went down, or vice versa. Disease models were useless – and by late 2022, the CDC discontinued publishing their “ensemble” projection from the disease models, saying their output was “low quality”.
The black line is “actual cases” (what really happened) while the colored lines are the (incorrect) projections from the disease models.
