In fact over the next few decades, migration is predicted to become the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries (several posts on this topic will be coming).
SWP Report 2023: The problem with ‘too few’ | United Nations Population Fund (unfpa.org)
Rich countries – all of them, actually – say they plan to expand immigration to address their low fertility rates. Europe, especially, is shrinking and will have to import more people from other countries.
The US Census forecasts that on or before 2040, 100% of population growth in the U.S. will come from immigrants. We can also see a change in attitudes – contrary to the view that immigrants will be viewed negatively, the high skilled immigrants will be viewed as the cool folkx, multi-lingual, and global thinkers.
Obviously, not every country can be successful with this strategy – there will not be enough skilled workers wanting to move to other countries – certainly not to all of them which are simultaneously going to be competing for workers.
It will be a fantastic time to be young and in the labor force – jobs will be plentiful and wages high.
Not a good time to be older – in fact, there is a presumption that lifespans will increase somewhat, but due to the dearth of labor and shortage of workers paying into government taxes, the notion of retiring at age 65 may end (except for those who accumulate a lot of money, save and invest for their future). Instead, the standard retirement age may go up – and note that there are proposals in the U.S. ti increase the retirement age to 70 or perhaps 72 (not withstanding that health issue will take many out of the labor pool before then).
The “standard” retirement age of 65 is already sort of meaningless. Many workers get laid off in their late 50s to early 60s, are unable to find meaningful work options and end up involuntarily retiring before age 65.
Social Security’s “standard benefits” do not start until age 67 and to shore up SS, that is likely to move to age 70.
Various government jobs have allowed retirements from roughly age 45 to 55, already. Until a decade or two ago, public school teachers in Washington State could have full retirement benefits after 30 years of service (typically early 50s). This is no longer available, however, to teachers hired more recently.
