Based on the past 4 years, I would guess vastly less than we think. Economists and market analysts are famous for making bold predictions of financial markets – which are sometimes correct for a while, until they fail spectacularly (see anything by Taleb for more on that).
Covid-19 disease models were a failure – yet were used to select public policies that did not work, but at least they caused real harms:
In December, 2021, the C.D.C. abruptly shut down its covid-19 case-forecast project, citing “low reliability.” They noted that “more reported cases than expected fell outside the forecast prediction intervals for extended periods of time.”
How Much of the World Is It Possible to Model? | The New Yorker
