Here is their forecast for 2023:
- Recession: “We predict a high likelihood of a global recession in 2023” – Didn’t happen (yet)
- Stocks: “modest improved expectations” “but not by huge percentages”. S&P 500 is up about 7% year to date
- 60/40: “The 60/40 portfolio continues to be a sound strategy”. Some say the 60/40 model is dead, some say not. Mixed.
- Unemployment: 5%. Current unemployment is 3.7% and has been low all year.
- Inflation: 3%. The current inflation rate for 12 months Oct 22 through Sep 23 is 3.7%.
- Fed market rate at end of 2023: 4.25%. Is currently 5.25% to 5.5%.
With that track record, they predict 2024: Vanguard heads say 2024 will be “below average” for stocks (cnbc.com)
