In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.
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Volcanic eruptions rarely inject much water into the stratosphere. In the 18 years that NASA has been taking measurements, only two other eruptions – the 2008 Kasatochi event in Alaska and the 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile – sent appreciable amounts of water vapor to such high altitudes. But those were mere blips compared to the Tonga event, and the water vapor from both previous eruptions dissipated quickly. The excess water vapor injected by the Tonga volcano, on the other hand, could remain in the stratosphere for several years.
This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.
Source: Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere | NASA
In 2022, NASA thought this would lead to higher air temperatures.
Would be helpful if journalists would revisit their past reporting and bring this issue up to date – is this an issue in 2023?
Related:
Similar comments in these published papers:
- The Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha’apai Hydration of the Stratosphere – Millán – 2022 – Geophysical Research Letters – Wiley Online Library
- Global perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption | Communications Earth & Environment (nature.com)
- Long-term surface impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai-like stratospheric water vapor injection (essopenarchive.org – pre-print): “The simulations show that the SWV anomalies lead to strong and persistent warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses in boreal winter, and austral winter cooling over Australia.”
