The media was excited this week over the 101 degree buoy reading at Manatee Bay, FL.
- Water temperature off Florida coast registers 101.1 degrees, hottest in history – UPI.com
- Florida seawater hits hot tub level and may have set world record | AP NewsFlorida ocean temperatures surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit, potentially a world record – CBS News
- Florida just had the hottest recorded ocean temperature. Here’s what that means for the environment (yahoo.com)
Here is the original NOAA log, in Celsius as logged by NOAA’s buoy network:
This buoy record a nearly similar temperature the day before, briefly.
Within hours the buoy’s temperature recording fell by 4 deg C (to 34.0 C), and by 2 days later had fallen by 9 degrees C to 29.4 C:
The immediate closest buoy stations recorded no unusual high temperatures here at LSNF1 buoy:
And here at LBSF1:
- Why there was one brief high temperature reading, yet substantial cooling immediately afterwards?
- Why did the adjacent stations not show similar high temperatures?
- Some today argue the 1913 record temperature of 134 deg in Death Valley is not real because nearby stations did not record readings that high. If that is a problem for Death Valley’s record, why is that not a problem for the Manatee Bay record reading?
- Something is going on with this individual buoy station – should the media jump to grand conclusions before we can answer the above questions?
- In fact, why has no journalist pulled up this data and asked why it was much cooler (15 deg F cooler) within a couple of days?
- Update: MNBF1 is not an ocean buoy but a shallow tidal area in Everglades National Park – the edge of a tidal mud flat, basically. The peak temperatures occurred after low tide, when the water was shallower (the difference between high and low tide is typically around 2 feet but varies).This was not a record temperature for this buoy – it was 102 degrees in 2017. The buoy has a short history of less than 20 years. This information seems to answer the questions that journalists failed to ask.
- Note – an estimate of overall ocean temperatures (but excluding polar ocean areas) rose by 0.01 deg C in July of 2023.
- Remember, the best way to report on climate issues is with facts and logic, and probably not making exaggerated reports.
- And see forecast effects of Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption, below.
The above are reasonable questions and reasonable issues.
And then there is this – with a sharp rise and then a sharp drop. What explains that? Something as big as the Atlantic doesn’t make quick changes.
Climate Reanalyzer (the yellow line is 2022 and black is 2023)
Forecast Effects of Hunga Tonga Volcano Eruption in 2022
Finally, in late 2022, NASA said we should expect higher temperatures for several years due to the eruption of Hunga-Tonga. A paper in GPL and another in Nature said that the volcanic explosion uniquely added enormous quantities of water vapor to the atmosphere, increasing the water content by 10-13%. Water vapor is a “greenhouse gas”. Thus, what role did that play in the 2023 heat waves in various locations? Likely a little but not a lot: What’s causing the extremely warm temperatures in the North Atlantic? | Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com)
Related: Some think recent solar activity and solar wind (we are in the peak phase of the solar sunspot cycle) might have had an effect on the earth’s temperature. All of these factors may combine to produce warmer temperatures than forecast.
Note – In the 21st century it is tough to practice factfulness, to ask reasonable questions, and to try and understand the actual details. Unfortunately, noting inconsistencies and contradictions is, in the 21st century, forbidden and results in being name called as a “denier”, even if that is not the case.
