In 2020, Ukraine’s fertility rate was about 1.4, well below replacement level.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has caused perhaps 5 million people, mostly women and children, to flea the country. That’s an estimated 30-40% of Ukraine’s women of child bearing age. They won’t be having kids soon, having left their spouses and boyfriends behind in Ukraine. And many will have settled outside Ukraine and some families might return to their homeland.

Meanwhile, the war is killing tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands.

Russia has kidnapped thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of children and moved them to Russia.

Finally, as Peter Zeihan points out, people tend not to have kids when the future is bleak.

This points to a long term decline in Ukraine’s population.

Coldstreams