The Expert prediction from February 2021 – from a former US Treasury economist:
They should relax. The evidence that high inflation is on the way is weak. It’s too weak, actually: An economy on the verge of a robust recovery would be showing more signs of rising inflation. Right now, inflation appears more likely to stay below its optimal level than above.
….
Take account of such factors, and the forecast for the average inflation rate over the next five years is under 1.5 percent, well below the Fed’s target for action. For all of the recent alarms sounded about inflation, expectations are below where they were before the pandemic started.
Source: Opinion | Stop Worrying About Inflation – The New York Times
Every one of the experts were wrong, completely wrong.
As this blog has well documented, expert predictions about the future are virtually always wrong – and more often wrong than a random coin flip.
It takes a special kind of expertise to be worse than a coin toss.
