Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the California Department of Finance projected a 7% decrease in California public school enrollment between 2018 and 2028. report by the Public Policy Institute of California cited lower birth rates and migration from and within the state as reasons for enrollment changes across districts.

More recently, the Department of Finance projected a 9% decline – roughly 542,000 students – in enrollment between 2021 and 2031.

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These changes might mean it won’t be cost effective to keep under-enrolled public schools open, Duardo said.

“So, we are going to see more school closures and that is very challenging in communities,” she said.

Source: Public school enrollment is declining statewide. Here’s how SoCal districts are responding – ABC7 Los Angeles

This means future hard decisions about closing schools and laying off staff as there are no longer sufficient youth to fill classrooms.

Look at the demographic curve from age 16 and down. Within two more years, all grade levels will be in decline. Note – the declines are not uniform across the country. Some areas will see growth for a while due to internal migration in the U.S. (e.g. Socal to Boise, ID growth) while many are already well into decline.

 

Coldstreams