If you have read this blog you know that I view most disease models as on par with astrology.
I just read this report: ohsu-covid-oregon-trends_202108101.pdf
And this report seems good, including their presentation of their model.
The summary is that daily cases seem likely to more than double from where they are today (about 2,400 today), with peaks coming during the first two weeks of September.
It seems likely to me that the state will again close many indoor activities – restaurants, bars, cafes, events – during this period.
Oregon has the fewest number of hospital beds per capita of any state in the nation, which is causing problems as the state is now running out of beds in some areas and is projected to soon be short about 500 beds.
They do present a sleight of hand on mask effectiveness. They show the onset of the mask mandate and pretend this caused the summer reduction. The mandate remained in effect into the spring – and compliance was estimated at up to 94% during the fall and winter when cases rose to 10x higher than before.