More examples of bad predictions

July 21, 2020

A study produced by a team at Oxford University indicated that some parts of the United Kingdom may already have reached herd immunity from coronavirus. A significant fraction of the population, according to the study published last week, may have “innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses”, making the proportion vulnerable to coronavirus […]

Source: We may already have herd immunity – an interview with Professor Sunetra Gupta – Reaction

Late in 2020, the UK went on to have some of the most draconian lock down measures globally and now plans to lift restrictions in June of 2021.

January 11, 2021

Majority Indians have natural immunity.

“As we start 2021, the Covid-19 epidemic in India has progressed to a point where a near majority of the population has developed immunity to the virus. Though too many have died, India’s Covid death rate is, fortunately, lower than many other countries.”

India’s situation in May, 2021, about 4 1/2 months later (Chart from WHO). Note – India has 1.4 billion population and the media has not been helpful by omitting that context.

January 31, 2021

At the end of January, Michael Osterholm, professor, MD, epidemiologist, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota said we were in the “eye of a hurricane” and the worst of the pandemic would come in the next 6-14 weeks.

Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm issued dire warnings about the potential spread of the new, more contagious Covid-19 variants, saying that they could produce a surge of cases in the United States to levels “we have not seen yet in this country.”….

he expects to see cases of the new Covid-19 variants to surge “in the next six to 14 weeks.”….

Osterholm predicted that B117, the more contagious strain of the virus that is sweeping England and has been found in pockets of the United States, will become the dominant strain of the virus in the country. “If we see that happen, which my 45 years in the trenches tell us we will, we are going to see something like we have not seen yet in this country,” he said. “That hurricane is coming. We have to understand that because of this surge, we do have to call an audible.”

The epidemiologist said if we see a surge of the new variant this spring, it will be worse than the previous surges.

We are now 12 weeks into this 14 week window – let’s look at the epicurve. The magenta arrow marks the epicurve when he made his prediction.

March 29, 2021

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, overcome with emotions said she felt “impending doom”.

Walensky then noted how the current trajectory in the United States looks similar to many other countries—including Germany, Italy, and France—looked like just a few weeks ago, and since that time those countries have experienced a consistent spike in cases.

She was wrong, completely wrong.

Never Cry Wolf

Most predictions by the “Experts” have been wrong – completely wrong. Yet the media sucks up their pronouncements and when something does not pan out, they media pivots to the next scary thing they can find.

Osterholm’s scary doom and gloom was wrong (now Eric Feigl-Ding, PhD is again pushing the variants scare topic in late April). When case counts dropped in one region, the media moves to a new region where they are still rising. When case counts drop, they scream “Variants”, which they have been doing now for at least six months.

The media continues to solicit “expert” opinion for all of these “experts” who have been wrong.

Apparently no one heard the parable “Never Cry Wolf”: Who is going to believe any of these people anymore?

During the past 15 months, we have witnessed the suicide of expertise.

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