Expert predictions of the future worse than random guesses
Tests have been run in the past that found expert predictions of the future - even in the not distant future - are highly inaccurate.
Autos: Plugin hybrids fail to deliver full benefit in real world usage
Study shows that PHEV owenrs operate their vehicles as PHEV electric vehicles far less than was assumed by the EPA. Many never plug into an outlet.
AI assessment of “vegan eating is seeing explosive growth” (it’s not)
Actual data shows vegan eating in decline, while the media trumpets stories about "explosive growth" in veganism.
Real-time “crowd size estimates” tend to overestimate – by a lot
Be skeptical of crowd size estimates, especially those with a political context.
Models: Another model failure
In 2023, experts said The Great Salt Lake would dry up within 5 years. How did that turn out?
Media: Earth could be thrown out of orbit!!!!
GB News is apparently another parody news service! Who knew?
Follow up: 2 week old hurricane forecast
Less than 2 weeks ago, there was a model forecast for a major hurricane to strike Florida yesterday... not too accurate.
Crime/Corruption
Dueling Experts
Models
Nation of Idiots
Policy/Government
Public Health/Nutrition
Stupidity
Experts: The out of touch expert class
After the Covid era and a few other things I agree 100% with this.
Models: 2024 Predictions gone wrong
Model projections are often worthless and in some fields, completely worthless. Yet we blindly follow them.