Disease models have been a fiasco from day one: We can refer to a natural experiment in Sweden for some clarity. Sweden’s government did not lock down the country’s economy, though it recommended that citizens practice social distancing and it banned gatherings of more than 50 people. Swedish epidemiologists took the Imperial College of London … Continue reading Interesting comparison finds ICL disease model was worthless
Those of us who have seen Neil Ferguson’s ICL Covid sim model have the same views as this computational epidemiologist: As Ferguson himself admits, the code was written 13 years ago, to model an influenza pandemic. This raises multiple questions: other than Ferguson’s reputation, what did the British government have at its disposal to assess … Continue reading Experts criticize ICL’s Ferguson’s Covid SIM model as garbage
In the past I had some comments on Neil Ferguson’s disease model and have repeatedly noted its poor quality. This model was used, last spring, as the basis for setting government policies to respond to Covid-19. Like many disease models, its output was garbage, unfit for any purpose. The following item noted that the revision … Continue reading It’s worse than we thought: “Second Analysis of Ferguson’s Model”
The model will only be sold in Europe and Japan, where it goes on sale in late October. Honda expects annual sales of only around 10,000 in Europe, and 1,000 at home, where it will also introduce the model into its car-sharing fleet. The automaker said it had no plans to market the car in … Continue reading Honda introduces the Honda e, an electric vehicle targeted at city driving (mostly)
I will not comment on Covid-19 and only make a few comments on the publicly available source code. This is not a comment about whether models should be used – or not. This is not a comment about whether this model’s output is correct – or not (we have no way of knowing either way). … Continue reading ICL Covid-simulation source code
Electric vehicles are said to depreciate in value 10% more than internal combustion engine vehicles over 3 years. When I looked at used EV listings recently, I was surprised to see 1 year old EVs had decreased by 25% or more in value from their original purchase price. Electric vehicles depreciate in value by approximately … Continue reading Transportation: Electric vehicle depreciation
Tesla strikes a highway pothole in Illinois, flattens two tires and destroys the rims. Everyone else just whizzes by without suffering the same fate. 100 minutes later, his vehicle is towed to a Tesla service center and he gets a bill for $2668 to replace the two tires and rims and do the alignment. I … Continue reading Transportation: Hitting an ordinary pothole causes $2700 damage to Tesla Model 3
Link to a nice article on EV charging technology and options.
Most EVs with a useful range of 200 miles or more are sold primarily as higher priced luxury vehicles. EVs priced in the US$20,000 to $30,000 range are typically less than 125 miles in range.
Among a decline in electricity sales in the United States, electric utilities “need a new source of load growth” and “electrification of the transportation sector” is a huge opportunity. To that end, they are pushing for more EVs, even though the effect on greenhouse gas reductions may be mixed for now (due to use of fossil fuel-based generation).