Deaths outnumbered births last year for the first time in six decades. Experts see major implications for China, its economy and the world.
Source: China’s Population Falls, Heralding a Demographic Crisis – The New York Times
This is not reversible for many reasons including a small cohort of a child bearing age due to long standing single child policies – there are two few women of childbearing age. Second, their entire cultural structure is set up around 1 child households including apartments that only have space for 1 child families.
This is the start of their population shrinkage (although perhaps with a few years of some positive growth). Remember, the globe’s fertility rate has fallen to about 2.3. Below 2.1 represents negative population growth.
The US would have been shrinking for decades if not for immigration as the US fertility rate fell below 2.1 in about 1972 and has been there since. Lower child mortality and longer life spans gave a temporary boost to population, together with immigration.
China, like the Scandinavian countries, has offered many benefits to encourage having children, recently. But as elsewhere, these programs have failed. Yet idiot politicians in the U.S. have proposed “Free childcare” to encourage family growth in the U.S. – yet the Scandinavian countries doing generous family benefits programs for a long time have the same fertility rates at the U.S. plus or minus a small amount.
Looking way ahead, the current and looming labor shortage will be address through process efficiency improvements, innovation and automation. Immigration will play a temporary role for some countries – but there will not be enough immigrants willing to relocate globally to meet all of the demands for new workers.
