Many challenging issues for EVs to replace today’s ICE vehicles. I think many of these challenges can and will be overcome – but it is fair to say we are not there yet.
- Today’s EVs are primarily luxury car market vehicles. Not priced (yet) for mass adoption.
- For many (not all) in the U.S., they are bought as an additional vehicle, not a replacement.
- Tesla outsells everyone else combined. However, Musk has recently ticked off the progressive community with his actions at Twitter, and many say they will not now buy a Tesla – and progressives are the most likely to have bought an EV.
- The carbon emissions reductions from EVs are nowhere near 100%, as many drivers think. Instead, their carbon emissions reductions are a fraction of 100% when including total life cycle emissions versus today’s ICE vehicles. One study estimated total life cycle emissions reduction are just -28%, reached after driving an EV 200,000 miles (based on current electrical generation mix, energy used in production, and so on).
- Until we have readily available, very fast charging for all, everywhere, EVs are not a solution for many people. For the approximately 200 miles of road to my east, there are, I believe, two fast but not turbo fast chargers available along the entire route. That’s two chargers, not two EV charging pit stop stations – just two charging cables. As winter temperatures can be very cold (it was below zero in this area about a week ago), EV range falls off dramatically and requires more time at chargers – assuming chargers are available.
- There’s complications in sourcing materials used in EVs – with leading sources having been Russia, Ukraine and China
- Ramping up Lithium mining, extraction, processing and distribution by 10x isn’t likely to happen fast enough. Then again, and where I have a different view than Peter Zeihan, I suspect we will soon see other battery technologies that might not depend on Lithium. Lithium batteries may be a temporary solution.
