He’s been wrong about essentially everything – just read the comments to his own post.

But defends himself by “name calling”, then “appeal to authority”, then more “appeal to authority” but never addresses the elephant in the room. Arguments are based on facts and logic, not on name calling and appeals to authority.

US Fertility Rate

Note – his book was published in 1968. By about 1972, the US was below 2.1.

Global fertility rate average is now down in the low 2s and continuing to decline. India is at 2.3 and declining.

The multiple apocalypses predicted by Ehrlich didn’t happen. He still insists he’s correct but just got the dates wrong – by a lot.

Yes, future population growth is “baked in” but long-term growth is not. Peak population might be reached as soon as 2050, 2080, 2100, etc, depending on different models and assumptions. The earlier dates are based on what happens when there is economic growth and opportunity, and women have access to educational opportunities. When that happens, fertility rates collapse rapidly.

Prediction Examples

Britain will cease to exist by the year 2000

Commenter Bernard Dixon then argues that if Ehrlich is wrong, “it is probably on small matters, not his central arguments”.

Many people far more qualified than I have also noted that Ehrlich was wrong about everything:

Hannah Ritchie knows a bit about these topics (understatement of the year). She is the Head of Research at OurWorldInData.com

What I learned the Past 3 Years

Almost all “expert opinion” is wrong, and often harmful.

I learned the media cowtows to people with initials after their names, titles and Blue Checks and is fearful of skeptically questioning them.

The result is the technocratic elite really believe they are smarter than everyone else and that Science is omnipotent, not to be questioned.

Considering the actual data, above, the failure of disease models and public health measures, at the end of the day, the technocratic elite are self-serving charlatans, best ignored.

Coldstreams Skeptic