There are too few EVs and hybrids at this point to make generalized future projections about gas consumption. Most EVs, so far, are replacements for smaller, fuel-efficient ICE vehicles. A Chevy Bolt EV or a Tesla Model 3 would replace my 42 mpg Honda. An EV pickup truck, though, would replace a vehicle getting 14-21 mpg – making a much larger difference.
Yep: “S&P noted that the growth in EVs is largely coming from current owners of Toyota and Honda vehicles. Both of the automakers are well-known for fuel-efficient vehicles but have been slow to transition to all-electric models.” – we are replacing high mileage/high fuel efficiency vehicles with EVs. If we wanted the maximum bang for the investment, we’d be replacing low mileage vehicles with EVs – but we are not there yet.
The data is so limited at this point that they should not be making projections into the future. This projection is likely to be as accurate as disease models, which is to say, completely wrong.
This sentence, below, implies the climate elite want you to ride a bike or walk – no more driving for the plebians. They will still be flying their private jets:
But it should be clear now that EVs on their own are not a panacea to our transport-related climate problems, and the future will require many more people to walk, cycle, or take the bus to get to where they’re going.
Source: American EVs reduced gasoline consumption by just 0.54% in 2021 | Ars Technica
Or take public transit – SF Bay Area Rapid Transit ridership:
