Models making long range predictions are mostly wrong, all the time. Why do we give them any credence? Go back and look at worthless disease model projections:
Economists misjudged how much staying power inflation would have. Next year could be better — but there’s ample room for humility.
Source: Inflation Forecasts Were Wrong Last Year. Should We Believe Them Now? – The New York Times
The disease models were so bad that the CDC – FINALLY – in late 2022 stopped posting “case” projections with a note saying disease models demonstrated low reliability.
I suspect the same can be said for climate models. Their output is probably mostly random. The climate could end up better or worse, a lot better or a lot worse. We have no idea. Yet we rely on worthless models such as the disease models to set reckless public policies that caused harm, with few benefits.
Why should we have confidence government can do any better with climate when they just demonstrated they failed to control Covid-19 but caused a great deal of harm and destruction?
