{"id":19682,"date":"2025-10-01T01:31:50","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T01:31:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/social.coldstreams.com\/?p=19682"},"modified":"2025-10-01T20:25:31","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T20:25:31","slug":"he-calls-himself-an-honest-pollster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/2025\/10\/01\/he-calls-himself-an-honest-pollster\/","title":{"rendered":"He calls himself an &#8220;honest pollster&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>But he is not honest &#8211; do you see the problem?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"586\" height=\"161\" src=\"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-content\/uploads\/image-277.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19683\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>He using a trick to co-mingle what are basically two groups by combining them into a single group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The figure that <strong>48% of 18\u201329-year-olds report having full-time jobs<\/strong> is broadly accurate, but it masks significant variation within that age band\u2014especially between college-aged individuals and post-graduates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udcca What the Data Shows<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>According to recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>53.1% of 16\u201324-year-olds<\/strong> were employed in July 2025, but this includes part-time and seasonal work.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Among <strong>18\u201329-year-olds<\/strong>, surveys like those from Pew and Generation Lab suggest that <strong>roughly half<\/strong> report full-time employment, though definitions vary (some include gig work or contract roles).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><em>College enrollment skews the lower end:<\/em><\/span><\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><em>About 60% of 18\u201322-year-olds are enrolled in higher education<\/em><\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><em>Many of these students work part-time or not at all, which drags down full-time employment rates for the entire 18\u201329 bracket.<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\udde0 Why It Feels Biased<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You&#8217;re picking up on a classic <strong>aggregation bias<\/strong>: combining a wide age range (18\u201329) into one statistic obscures the fact that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>18\u201322-year-olds<\/strong> are mostly students, often not working full-time.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>23\u201329-year-olds<\/strong> are more likely to be in the workforce full-time.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So yes, the 48% figure is technically accurate, but it\u2019s <strong>not representative of any single subgroup<\/strong> within that range. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sources:<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/youth.nr0.htm\">BLS Youth Employment Summary \u2013 July 2025<\/a><br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/03\/what-americas-youngest-workers-want-from-jobs-cnbc-survey.html\">CNBC\u2013Generation Lab Survey of Young Workers<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Famous pollster who calls himself an &#8220;honest pollster&#8221; is not honest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[356,9,359,17,24,26,30,352,36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-card-stacking","category-cherry-picking","category-everything-is-awful","category-facts","category-in-practice","category-lies","category-media-propaganda","category-misinformation","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19682\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}