{"id":15630,"date":"2024-06-12T16:43:51","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T16:43:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/social.coldstreams.com\/?p=15630"},"modified":"2024-06-12T16:43:51","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T16:43:51","slug":"a-1-in-1000-year-event-does-not-mean-what-reporters-think-it-means","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/2024\/06\/12\/a-1-in-1000-year-event-does-not-mean-what-reporters-think-it-means\/","title":{"rendered":"A 1 in 1,000 year event does not mean what reporters think it means"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>WRONG:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>So rare was Tuesday&#8217;s rain between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. in Sarasota that it should only be expected every 500 to 1,000 years. <\/strong>The Tampa Bay area can normally expect 7.3 inches in the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/media\/tbw\/climate\/tpajunnormrec.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">entire month of June<\/a>.<\/p>\n<cite><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/us-news\/southern-florida-receives-record-rainfall-flash-flooding-500-1000-year-rcna156700\">Southern Florida receives record rainfall and flash flooding in a 500-to-1,000-year event (nbcnews.com)<\/a><\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>From the USGS:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>A 100-year flood happened last year so it won&#8217;t happen for another 99 years, right? Not exactly. Misinterpretation of terminology often leads to confusion about flood recurrence intervals. Read on to learn more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8230;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a0The term &#8220;100-year flood&#8221; is used in an attempt to simplify the definition of a flood that statistically has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given year. Likewise, the term &#8220;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/special-topic\/water-science-school\/science\/how-much-water-flows-during-a-storm\">100-year storm<\/a><\/strong>&#8221; is used to define a rainfall event that statistically has this same 1-percent chance of occurring. In other words, over the course of 1 million years, these events would be expected to occur 10,000 times. But, just because it rained 10 inches in one day last year doesn&#8217;t mean it can&#8217;t rain 10 inches in one day again this year.<\/p>\n<cite><a href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/special-topics\/water-science-school\/science\/100-year-flood\">The 100-Year Flood | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)<\/a><\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>A 1,000 year rain fall event means they have created an estimate that there is a 1 in 1000 chance that such rain will happen every year, and not that such a rain event will happen only once in a thousand years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/patricksmithjournalist\/?originalSubdomain=uk\">reporter Patrick Smith, of NBC<\/a>, is based in London, England and studied history in college.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The media, again, does not understand what a 1 in 100 or 1,000 year storm means.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,29,352],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facts","category-media","category-misinformation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15630"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15630\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}