{"id":12891,"date":"2022-10-18T21:11:30","date_gmt":"2022-10-18T21:11:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/socialpanic.org\/?p=12891"},"modified":"2023-03-30T03:20:39","modified_gmt":"2023-03-30T03:20:39","slug":"propaganda-focusing-on-unlikely-worst-case-scenarios-does-not-produce-optimal-public-outcomes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coldstreams.com\/social\/2022\/10\/18\/propaganda-focusing-on-unlikely-worst-case-scenarios-does-not-produce-optimal-public-outcomes\/","title":{"rendered":"Propaganda: Focusing on unlikely worst case scenarios does not produce optimal public outcomes"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a letter in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the authors write that many scientists are focusing way too much of the worst-case scenarios of climate change and environmental shifts all around the globe. While the team notes that these problems are real, constantly preaching impending doom is counter-productive and overshadows the more likely outcomes of global warming. These more-likely outcomes fall into the middle of the climate change conversation \u2014 not good, but also not extremely bad.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Source: Yes, climate change is bad — but scientists must ‘chill’ when it comes to doomsday scenarios, experts say<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

When many aspects of a future are unknowable and not predictable, modelers select “scenarios” and model what might occur around each scenario. In the case of climate, the most extreme scenario is RCP 8.5<\/a> – which many scientists say is not physically possible in the real world. This scenario produces the scariest results for climate and is the one that the media amplies the loudest.<\/p>\n

This led to 40% of young adults suffering significant (and unwarranted) anxiety about the end of the world.<\/p>\n

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Image from Climate Nexus<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Related<\/strong> – in the late 1960s, overpopulation leading to the end of humanity on earth was the focus of conventional wisdom, the media, pundits, science and politicians. In reality, the U.S. fertility rate turned below the replacement level of 2.1 by 1972 and has remained below that level for most years since then. The global fertility rate has fallen to about 2.3 and is continuing to drop. A small number of countries, mostly in Africa, continue with high rates but these too may fall faster than modeled because everywhere women’s education has increased, and economies have improved, the fertility rate has plummeted.<\/p>\n

Errant conclusions are reached when we focus on odd, extreme worst-case scenarios that are unlikely, rather than the most likely outcomes.<\/p>\n