Higher grocery prices could soon hit supermarkets as the war with Iran continues. The higher prices are because of a surge in the cost of diesel fuel, which powers many of the vehicles transport products across a vast global supply chain.
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— ABC News (@ABC) March 20, 2026

Reality Check

Transportation accounts for about 5% of grocery prices, on average, and fuel costs are a fraction of the 5%.

Their story quotes many “experts” but leaves out critical context:

Fuel’s direct impact on your grocery bill is small (roughly 1–1.5% overall), which aligns with why farm-level commodity prices and processing/retail margins have a bigger influence than diesel prices alone. Data can vary slightly by year, commodity (e.g., fresh produce is more transport-sensitive), or methodology, but these USDA- and ATRI-backed figures are the most reliable and commonly referenced benchmarks.

If fuel prices were to double, grocery prices – if they tracked fuel prices – might rise about 1 percentage point. That said, some vendors may use gas prices as an excuse to raise prices – hoping you won’t notice.