October 18, 2020
As of today, this page may no longer contain 100% accurate numbers – close, but not 100%. This is due to a combination of factors.
- My data comes from the “Daily Update” releases. This data is heavily revised in time by OHA and they do not provide a revision history so we do not know what has changed. 4 Covid-19 deaths were later declared as “not Covid-19”, for example, resulting in a decrement to past unknown days.
- I have missed up to half a dozen days of logging. This does not have much of an effect on long term trends and my interest is in trends, not specific daily body counts.
- OHA produces more charts now. In March, they did not release any data or counts. The gradually have added more data tables and charts to their web site. However, for calculations such as my ratio of deaths to new cases, or ratio of hospitalizations to new cases, I have to do my own analysis as OHA does not provide useful information like that.
- TSA passenger data will only be updated once per week, usually on Monday.
Charts, below, are created automatically from data updated most weekday afternoons. OHA no longer releases a report on Saturday and Sunday so Friday’s hospitalization values remain constant until the following Monday. All data is from the Oregon Health Authority (OHA).
Charts are generated from 4 cloud-based spreadsheets and may take time to load.
Use the horizontal scroll bar to view right edges of charts, as needed.
If you stumble upon this page: I am not an authority – these charts should be treated as “FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY”. Please assume I am an idiot and that I have cherry picked all data and everything you see here is wrong or stupid.
- OHA periodically removes prior “new cases” or “deaths” after new information indicated the patient did not have Covid-19 or did not die (usually a data entry error).
- OHA periodically moves cases from one county to another, or to out of state, based on new information, decrementing earlier counts. Because the OHA does not say what day was decremented, I have to pick a random day to reduce by 1. This means my data may be off from a later OHA data release or chart.
- As of June 6th, OHA stopped releasing detailed data on Saturday and Sunday – this means no detailed data (hospitalization, ICU beds, etc) is available for Friday -Sunday.
- These charts are based primarily on the OHA “Daily Updates” and this yields different values than the OHA “Data Dashboard” data, presumably because the “Data Dashboard” contains updates to past data.
The following reflects test ratio and percentage testing positive since the very first test in March (which includes nearly two months of testing almost no one).
The test ratio indicates the total number tested for each confirmed case (e.g. 29:1 means out of 29 people tested, there was one positive test result).
Total tests done for each confirmed case
Percentage testing positive since first tests in March
The “daily body count” reflects the day OHA counted the death in their public information release. Each death may have occurred days to a week or more earlier. Therefore, use caution in interpreting a particular day’s death count.
In August, OHA acknowledged the count of Covid-19 deaths is not meaningful. OHA combines deaths DUE TO Covid-19 with deaths that occur WITH Covid-19. Patients with known heart problems, who had no Covid-19 symptoms died due to a heart attack. But because they tested positive for Covid-19, the state says their death was due to Covid-19.
My county currently has 10 deaths. 8 of those 10 were patients in in-patient hospice care. In other words, they were dying of something else prior to contracting Covid-19. When they died, the state counted it as a Covid-19 death even though it may truly have been a death due to natural causes, cancer, heart disease – any number of other normal causes. Consequently, the daily body count is a meaningless number that tells the public nothing about the state of the disease. OHA does not know how many deaths are WITH Covid-19 versus how many are DUE TO Covid-19.
Daily Body Count
Cumulative Deaths Statewide, Log Scale
Cumulative Deaths, Linear Curve
This data was recorded by hand from OHA “Daily Updates”, starting in late March. Note the “curve” is linear and not the much discussed “exponential” curve.
Average Number of Deaths Per Day
This is calculated as the cumulative total number of deaths divided by the number of days since March 14 when OHA reported the first death attributed to Covid-19. As of July, the average number of deaths per day is just over 2/day, which adds important context. About 105 people die per day, in Oregon, on average.
Questions About Deaths Classified as Covid-19
As of 7/31/20, Deschutes County has had 8 reported deaths. A local TV station reporter inquired about these and learned that 6 of the 8 deaths were of patients who were in-patients in a hospice care facility. They died “with” Covid-19 and not “because of” Covid-19.
An 83 year old in Hermiston OR experienced a heart attack. 9-1-1- was called and he was transported to a local ER where we was treated for a heart attack, but passed away. He had had previous heart surgery, was diabetic, and suffered other health problems, according to his family. A post mortem test for Covid-19 had a positive result so OHA classified his death as due to Covid-19. The family disputes his death was due to Covid-19.
In Yamhill County, a 26 year old experienced illness symptoms and died 4 days later. A Covid-19 test result was negative. However, OHA classified his death as due to Covid-19. The family has hired a private autopsy to investigate.
According to Philip Schmidt of OHA, “the state’s data is not conclusive as to whether someone died as a result of the coronavirus. Rather, it shows only that they died carrying the virus.”
Other crazy examples – when the media asked about pre-existing conditions of a 20+ year old that had died due to Covid-19 in Florida, the state’s epidemiologist said there were none, that he had, in fact, died as a result of a motorcycle crash but had a positive test result for Covid-19.
Oregon Deaths: Total Versus Covid-19 Related
Data comes from OHA Death data and OHA Covid-19 daily death reports. OHA Death data is updated once at end of month, giving data for the prior month. This data is subject to change if death data is reported late to OHA. As of 8/1/20, OHA has not yet provided a June death count.
Excess Deaths from All Causes in Oregon
Interestingly, Oregon, unlike the U.S. as a whole, is seeing fewer overall deaths, from all causes. Stated another way, the relatively few deaths due to Covid-19 are not resulting in an unusually high number of deaths in Oregon in 2020 through the end of July 2020.
The orange line represents the CDC’s definition of “excess deaths” – Oregon is, at best, just average. Keep in mind that “recent deaths” might not yet be reflected in this total as records continue to arrive.
The next chart shows that the U.S. – as a whole – does display excess deaths. But again, this is not true for Oregon. These two charts will be updated very infrequently.
Seven Day Moving Average % Change in Daily Deaths
Estimated Case Fatality Rate for Oregon
The Case Fatality Rate or CFR is the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. If the CFR is 5%, this means that 5% of those with a confirmed case are dying (or 1 in 20).
Strictly unofficial and very, very, very approximate. Remember, this is for Entertainment Purposes Only. This chart shows that the fatality rate for Covid-19, in Oregon, has fallen sharply. This chart is the past seven days deaths divided by the past seven days new cases. Because deaths lag new cases typically by a few weeks, this chart will undershoot the true value – however, the trend is the important feature, not the specific number.
On July 9th, the Oregonian caught up with this trend, reporting that the mortality from Covid-19 in both Oregon hospitals and in the chain of Providence hospitals on the west coast, has plummeted. I have been watching this trend in the data, for months. But I’m not an expert so please ignore anything I notice. Sadly, the Oregonian quotes extensively from Dr. Bruce Goldberg, professor at OHSU, neglecting his role as the disgraced former head of OHA and his mismanagement of the nearly 1/2 billion dollar failure of Cover Oregon, the only ACA health exchange to have never enrolled anyone.
Overall, cumulative case fatality rate (deaths/confirmed cases)
Overall, cumulative Infection Fatality Rate (deaths/ (confirmed cases x 5 ) )
The Institute of Disease Modeling has repeatedly assumed there are five times more cases in Oregon than are detected by current tests. If that is the case, then the IFR is one-fifth of the above number. The CDC currently estimates the IFR in the U.S. is 0.4. Many states assume the total infected is 10x (not 5x as in Oregon). Divide the following number in half for a 10x multiplier figure.
The CFR is total dead / confirmed cases.
The IFR is the total dead / estimated number of total case.
As far back as March and in to April, the values for CFR and IFR were revised sharply downwards with CFR below 1% and IFR in the 0.3 to 0.5% range with some estimates as low as 0.1% back in April. Other estimates in June said the IFR was over 1% – but that seems unlikely as antibody tests find large swathes of the population in some “hot spot” areas having already had Covid-19. The IFR is not the same as CFR and it is a mistake to compare the IFR to the CFR of influenza (typically 0.1 to 0.2%).
Ratio of 7-day Average of New Deaths / 7-day average of New Cases
This chart shows that over time, the mortality rate of Covid-19 is decreasing. This shows the approximate number of deaths occurring for each 100 new confirmed cases as of the date shown on the X-axis. Because deaths lag new cases, this chart will tend to undershoot the true value. However, the trend is the important feature not the specific number.
On June 24th, the Oregon Health Authority issued this statement in their weekly summary:
“Available evidence suggests average severity of illness among reported cases is lower than it was early in the outbreak: hospitalizations and deaths remain well below their peaks, even after reported cases have been surging for 4 weeks, and the percentage of emergency department visits attributable to COVID-19-like symptoms remains below 1%”
OHA suggests the mortality rate could be decreasing because:
- The disease is spreading among a younger population who get less sick.
- Far more testing and finding many asymptomatic or with such mild symptoms they never though to be tested. During the first two months, to be tested in Oregon the patient had to be either already hospitalized for pneumonia, or in a skilled nursing center – and have all symptoms, or have all CDC listed symptoms AND in have been in close contact with a confirmed case. This restricted testing to very few patients. Now, anyone can be tested with little or no symptoms including persons who may have been exposed (but are not certain). OHA suggests we are now testing and confirming cases in persons with no or little symptoms. For example, an outbreak at a fish processing plant led to offering tests to all workers. 95% of those tested were asymptomatic and would not have been identified earlier.
- We are now finding asymptomatic people who are false positives. Due to Bayes Theorem, many – even most – asymptomatic positives may be false positives. A 95% accurate test sounds good. But when only 1 in 1,000 people are actually sick, testing people who have no symptoms means 5% of 1,000 or 50 people will be given a false positive test result – but only 1 is actually sick, meaning the accuracy is only 2%!
- We are now finding more asymptomatic people because, like the fish plant in Newport, when the outbreak occurred they offered testing to every worker – hundreds of people. And most of the positive tests turned up asymptomatic carriers that now count as confirmed cases – but will doubtfully show up in a hospital bed.
- Or, and this is not from the OHA, perhaps the disease is changing: “”Decreased-in-hospital mortality in patients with Covid-19 pneumonia” – ” In our institution, the proportion of patients requiring ICU decreased over time from 17% to 7%, without significant changes in patients’ age, suggesting a decreased severity of clinical presentation and progression” Who knows at this point?
- REMINDER: I have no expertise in any of this. Assume I am an idiot, these concepts are nonsense and this page is FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
New Cases Trends
- March – April: Generally, you could not be tested unless you were already admitted to a hospital for pneumonia, or, you had all “classic symptoms” and lived in an elder care center, or, you had all “classic symptoms” and had known close contact with a confirmed case.
- Before May 4th: OHA reported *only* confirmed cases of Covid-19.
- Starting on May 4th: OHA reported *both* confirmed cases and “presumptive” cases (which may include someone with no test or a negative test result) as separate values. These seem to account for 3-4% of all reported cases.
- May 26th: OHA only reports a combined number. My charts use “confirmed” only before May 26th and the combined number afterwards.
- June 6: OHA discontinued providing detailed hospital data on Saturday and Sunday. On all charts after June 6, the Friday hospitalization, ICU beds and ventilators in use data is copied straight across the weekend. OHA does not update this the following week, either. It is perplexing that now, with cases in far greater numbers than in March-May, the OHA discontinues releasing this information.
- Late June: According to the Bend Bulletin, all restrictions on who can be tested for Covid-19 were removed in late June. By mid July, the number of tests done per day has risen to 6,000-7,000 per day.
- July 11: OHA announced 409 new cases on Friday July 10 but with a footnote that they were unable to process all cases on Thursday due to an information systems change and simply added those cases from Thursday (unknown number as they didn’t say how many) to the Friday total.
- July 30 – 7:39 pm. Governor orders Umatilla County back into lock down effective at noon the next day. Also orders Morrow County to return to Phase 1 from Phase 2, at noon the next day. OSU releases results find that an estimated 17% of Umatilla County residents have Covid-19 antibodies.
National Trends Charts and Maps
- Link to an excellent “trajectory” chart showing the trend in new cases, by state. Highly recommended.
- United States Numbers and Charts
- Map of cases by county in the U.S.
- Another great summary page.
Daily new cases in Oregon (Line Chart)
May 28th: Protests began and continued every day and night up to the present data. Current thinking is these events did not act as mass spreading events – but then that leads to questions as to why public health enthusiasts, in some areas, are still closing parks, trails, beaches and forests to public access. Those closures were apparently not necessary during “lock down” and even less necessary now.
The official OHA Epi Curve chart is now available online here. Note that past data – even many months ago – is continuously revised. Hence, my charts are “close” but it is not possible to keep them updated with OHA’s continuous revisions to historical data.
On the linked page, click on “Total Persons Tested” for a graphic display of how testing has risen dramatically faster than total cases.
7-day moving average of new cases in Oregon
Comparison of Test Results Over Time
OHA DATA FROM LAST MAY HAS CHANGED BY +/- 30%! For the latest week, the number of positive and negative tests reported for some prior weeks does not add up to the total tests they show. What?
OHA has added this note as of the week ending August 21:
Data note: In last week’s Testing Summary, OHA reported 25,744 tests performed in the week of Aug. 2–8. As results have continued to be reported to OHA, in today’s summary the total for that week has risen to 34,466. Such lags are expected as OHA is now publishing testing data by the date on which specimens were collected. As such, prior weeks’ data are being updated continuously.
In other words, they have changed all of the past data – and often by a LOT. A consequence of the above HUGE data changes is that the following chart is pretty much useless.
As testing increases, we see more new cases discovered. The blue line charts the total number of tests done per week. The orange line charts the total number of positive result tests. The orange positive test result line is – so far – roughly tracking the total number of tests as recent weeks see the number testing positive in the 3-4% range. Naturally, as the number of tests increases, so too does the total number of confirmed cases.
The last week of June saw 2x as many test as the last week of May, and 3 1/2x as many as the last week of April
Trend in percent positive test results
Daily new cases in Oregon (Daily Update) (Bar Chart)
Cumulative cases in Oregon (Daily Update), Linear curve
This chart is based on the OHA “daily updates”. However, the daily updates have different daily values than OHA “Data Dashboard” data downloads (which themselves change continuously). My cumulative total is higher than the OHA Data Dashboard values; however, I will continue to use the Daily Update values. Data generally begin in late March because OHA did not release daily update data before then.
Note that most of the “curve” is linear and not “exponential” – it’s two straight sections with an inflection point.
Total Cases (Linear) from OHA Data Dashboard Data
Most of the curve timeline is linear, not exponential.
Daily Increase as a Percent Change
Cumulative cases based on OHA Data Dashboard data, linear curve
OHA releases a total of new cases for the prior day in a “Daily Update” release issued Monday-Friday including hospitalization data. They release only the new cases and new deaths numbers on Saturday, Sunday and holidays; no hospitalization data is publicly available.
Separately, OHA has a “Data Dashboard” to display an OHA chart of daily new cases. From that page, the data may be downloaded. I downloaded this data on June 26 and again on July 13th and began charting these values.
There is a discrepancy between the data series released from the past to the present. Some of this is due to the daily update being preliminary data that gets revised. But left unexplained is why data from 4 months ago is changing each day. No explanation is provided for this. As of late July, “new case counts” from March and April are changing – sometimes every day for the same day in March or April. I may soon ask OHA for explanation of why data from 3 to 4 months ago is changing in July.
OHA Chart of Hospitalizations
OHA chart shows peak day as March 28th with 28 admissions which is DIFFERENT than their Data Dashboard data which shows peak day of April 1 with 28 admissions.
Hospital PPE on Hand
See OHA web page.
Flattening the Curve
The original “flattening the curve” idea was expressed by a public health doctor with his illustration, below. The idea was that strict measures would shift the early peak into a longer term event – to avoid overloading hospitals. The intent was to shift those hospitalizations into the future, not eliminate them. We “flattened” the red curve and shifted those hospitalizations to the “blue curve”.
A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away.https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html
Unofficial “Hospital Intensity” Metric
For unknown reasons, the number of persons hospitalized or dying from Covid-19 drops relative to the new number of diagnosed cases. No one knows why this is occurring but even the OHA sees this now.
This chart graphs a ratio of the 7-day sum of current hospitalizations to the 7-day sum of new cases. As time goes on, the number of daily
new cases goes up, but the number of hospitalized patients relative to newly diagnosed cases, has been going down. This suggest we are now diagnosing cases that are much milder than before. Or some other factor. For now, “officials” only speculate as to the cause.
This chart is similar to the 7-day average of new deaths / 7-day average of new cases. Rather than showing mortality, it shows that hospitalizations per new case are also dropping.
In early April, the OHA Daily Update reported that up to about 25% of confirmed Covid-19 patients were hospitalized at some point. As of July 8, 2019, OHA reports that the cumulative hospitalization percentage is now about 10%. Since this is a cumulative figure, for this value to fall, presumably the currently hospitalization rate is less than 10%.
OHA does not provide information on how many new cases are newly hospitalized each day. All we have is the total number of people occupying a hospital bed each day – we do not know how many were admitted or released on any day. Consequently, I cannot calculate a # of newly hospitalized per 100 new cases like I did, above, for deaths. All we can do is look at a broad ratio to see that the trend is fewer hospitalized patients per new cases being found.
Hospitalization and Hospital Resources In Use
I believe the best metrics are the number of hospital beds occupied, the ICU confirmed cases, the number of ventilators in use by confirmed Covid-19 patients and the cumulative number of deaths attributed to Covid-19.
These values will remain what they are regardless of the total number of people in the population being tested and are therefore not biased by increased testing or a more expansive definition of “presumptive” cases.
- Beginning in June, the OHA discontinued issuing hospital data on Saturday and Sunday. The effect of this is that the values for Friday remain constant Friday-Saturday-Sunday – or stated another way, we now only have data for 4 days of the week. One would think – as the number of cases exploded in June and July that this data would be as important as it was the first three months – but the data is no longer publicly available.
- On the 4th of July weekend, OHA gave no report on Friday, Saturday or Sunday. This means the Thursday hospital data values remain constant for Thursday-Friday-Saturday-Sunday. And we have data for only 3 days of the week – again, during a time when public health and the media tell us things are getting worse. Does this make sense to cut off data now?
- The number hospitalized for Covid 19 confirmed AND presumptive is always about twice as many as confirmed cases. We assume a presumptive patient in the hospital is going to be tested, right? But since the confirmed case counts are always half the confirmed+presumptive total, this implies most of the presumptive cases were not actually Covid-19? Something makes no sense here.
Cumulative Hospitalized Cases from OHA Data Dashboard Data
Note that this is a linear chart and the curve is not exponential.
Hospital Confirmed and Unconfirmed Cases
Hospital Confirmed Cases
The next 3 charts are very important – number of confirmed cases occupying a hospital bed, number of confirmed cases in ICU beds, and the number of confirmed cases on ventilators. These numbers are independent and not biased by a large increase in tests being given.
ICU Confirmed Cases
Ventilators in Use
OHA Chart of Peak Day of Covid-like Symptom Presentation to ERs
Peak Day is March 13th, with a slightly lower second peak on March 21. At the time, models were predicting substantially higher peaks in April to May time frames but those peaks never happened.
Cases by County Trends
As of October 2020, these County charts are no longer updated here.
Instead, refer to the OHA Testing and Test Positivity page for similar charts
Top Counties Only
New Cases in Counties Having Large Numbers of Cases
Percent of Daily New Cases in the Top Counties
Number of new cases in the top counties
Data Table Showing Cumulative Percentages of Cases and Deaths by County
There are 36 total counties in Oregon. As of this writing, about 75% of all deaths occurred in the top 5 counties out of the 36. After the top 5, the percentage contribution of each county drops dramatically.
I live here so I track this one separately. As of mid-July my count is off by 2 from OHA numbers. This can occur because OHA changes past data based on new information but does not publish a change log providing details. There is thus no way to reconcile the changes.
UPDATE OCTOBER 25, 2020
While I continue to update these charts, because the underlying data is revised by public health, as new data becomes available, my charts are “close” but no definitive.
Daily new cases in Deschutes County
Deschutes County 7-day moving average of New Cases
Deschutes County Cumulative Cases
Deschutes County Estimated Active Cases
In this chart, I defined a case as “Active” for 20 days after it was first reported. According to the OHA, the median time to recovery is 20 days. The chart shows s a sum of the total outstanding cases for the prior 20 days. This is completely unofficial, just a random concept FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
Current counts for Deschutes County (and other counties) may be found on this OHA page. My chart estimate always runs quite a bit higher than the actual numbers shown by the County and OHA. Because its just a very crude estimate.
New Lockdowns in Umatilla and Morrow Counties 7/31/20 – Malheur County returned to Phase 1 as of 8/17/20
Umatilla had a large spike relative to its population size. On the evening of 7/30/20, the Governor ordered the county back into lock down “Phase 0” (presumably protests would still be okay though), and ordered Morrow County to return to Phase 1 – both as of 7/31/20.
A few weeks later, the Governor ordered Malheur County to return to Phase 1.
UPDATE MID-SEPTEMBER 2020 – AS OF MID-SEPTEMBER 2020 I AM NO LONGER UPDATING THE COUNTY DATA CHARTS.
IT IS TIME CONSUMING TO UPDATE THESE BY HAND AND OHA DOES FREQUENT CHANGES OF PAST DATA, WITHOUT ANNOUNCING THOSE CHANGES. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CHARTS ARE ONLY USEFUL FOR A BROAD BRUSH LOOK.
The spike on about 7/29 was due to failure to report prior days test results in a timely fashion (prior day is near zero). If we average those together and squint a little it appears Umatilla County may have peaked during the prior week (too early to tell – will be confirmed in a few days though).
OSU estimates 17% of the County’s population has antibodies. Combined with recently published papers finding large portions of populations sampled having an immune response (but not antibodies to Covid-19 and did not have Covid-19), some think “herd immunity” may exist at about 20%+/- testing positive for antibodies. If true, then Umatilla County is likely past its peak and will see a gradual fall off now.
Morrow County was moved from Phase 2 back to Phase 1 effective on 7/31/20.
Malheur County was moved from Phase 2 back to Phase 1 effective 8/18/2020. The reason was not due to new cases surging but mostly because their “positive test” ratio is 26%. This could be because fewer people are seeking a test or because of delays in processing all test results. Who knows?
These values may be meaningful or not meaningful.
Oregon Health Care Workers Slightly Less Likely To Get Covid-19 than General Population – Possibly
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, 11% of Oregon’s work force works in health care (they note this figure does not include self employed workers who are in the health care fields and data is for 2018). The data appears to come from this Oregon government document.
According to the August 4th Oregon Update, 10% of those diagnosed with Covid-19 are health care workers.
This may mean that health care workers are slightly less likely to contract Covid-19 than the general population.
However, because many confirmed cases have “unknown” employment, that could also skew the result.
Additionally, this could be lower because (1) health care workers are trained in infection control protocols, (2) they use PPE, (3) they use PPE mostly correctly, and (4) workers in some fields, notably food processing plants, seem to be a much higher risk than the general population, skewing the disease towards the general public. That means the percent attributed to health care workers is smaller because certain groups are getting hit much harder.
Based on the limitations of the data, we cannot draw a definitive conclusion. However, it appears that health care workers are probably not contracting Covid-19 at a much higher rate, which some expected early on because of their close, extended close contact with patients (both those with the disease and those who may be asymptomatic).
Percent of Oregon population that has had confirmed Covid-19
Estimated Percent of Oregon population that has had Covid-19 including IDM estimated unconfirmed cases (5x)
Percent of Oregon population that has not had Covid-19
Percent of Oregon population that has died of Covid-19
Relative Risk of Covid-19 diagnosis versus your car being in a traffic accident yesterday
At the time of this writing, the figure was 1.7. This means it is 1.7 times more likely to be diagnosed with Covid-19 than for your car to be in car crash. This is useful for comparing relative risks of different things.
Do you live in constant fear of being in a car crash today? Do you live in constant fear of being diagnosed with Covid-19? Most of us do not continuously think about getting in a car crash today and do not spend our days worrying about that. Yet many of us worry excessively about an contracting Covid-19 – yet even at 2x higher likelihood, the likelihood that we contract Covid-19 is not high.
Relative Risk of Covid-19 diagnosis versus being injured in a traffic accident today
If the number is greater than 1.0 (e.g. 2.5), this means you have a 2.5x higher likelihood of being diagnosed today with Covid-19 than you have of being in an injury vehicle accident today. I created this item to help understand the relative risk of contracting Covid-19 by comparing it to something else we can identify with.
Your likelihood of being hospitalized with Covid-19 is probably less than 1/10th this value – if it says 2.9, this is probably 10x higher than the risk you will be hospitalized with Covid-19. In other words, are you more scare of being injured in a car crash or of going to the hospital with Covid-19?
OREGON COVID-19 TIMELINE
- March 8: Institute for Disease Modeling (in a late May report) says Oregon’s curve began to bend on March 8 owing to voluntary measures (IDM)
- March 15: Peak day of Covid-like illness presenting at ERs in Oregon (OHA chart)
- March 23: Governor announces state-wide “lockdown” program. Charts show this lockdown had no impact on the already decreasing trend line.
- March 23: Earlier OHA charts and CLI data implied “peak” hospitalization was around March 23d. Their “data dashboard” data, through June 15th, puts the peak days at 26 on 3/20, 27 on 3/23 and 28 on 4/1 (OHA)
- April 5: Peak day of hospitalizations in Deschutes County (St Charles Hospital, Bend)
- April 5, 9 and May 20 [*]: Peak days of “new cases” in Deschutes County
- April 9: Peak day of state-wide ICU bed usage by confirmed patients (OHA)
- April 6: Peak day of state-wide ventilator usage by confirmed patients (OHA)
- April 27: Peak day for state-wide deaths (OHA)
- Jun 24th: Governor mandates public mask wearing in Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, Hood River, Marion, Polk and Lincoln counties. My hypothesis is this will have little impact on the new cases curve (social distancing, work place restrictions and hand washing are likely to be significant factors – and face masks add little to that in most situations). The ineffectiveness is, I believe, due to real world considerations – people wearing unfiltered N95 masks, people not covering their nose, people removing their mask to talk to other people, people storing their mask on their neck and rarely washing them, so they accumulate “germs” over time. Basically, in the real world where they are misused by real people, their effectiveness when added to social distancing and sanitization may not be high. In fact, several regions that mandated face mask wearing in mid-April to mid-May are as of July, undoing their re-openings, and Los Angeles is considering new lock down measures. Yet they’ve had a mandatory face mask requirement since April 18th.
- June 27th: Clatsop county is added to mask wearing mandate on June 27th.
- June 29th: Oregon Governor mandates covering your face with a face mask at all indoor locations effective July 1. This will be an interesting test case to see if it results in any changes in trends.
- June 29th: OHA changes new case reporting: “Note: Starting today and moving forward, epidemiologists are using a new method for reporting daily cases. The new method assigns a date to each case when the case is first known to the state or to local health department as confirmed or presumptive. This is a better representation of the number of cases reported on any given day. Previously, the method was to subtract today’s case counts from the previous day’s count. Today only, the daily numbers from the weekend press releases will not add-up. Weekend numbers were calculated using the previous method. Moving forward, every day will use the date each case is first known to the state or to local health departments.”
- July 2: Oregon announces +375 new cases, an all time high. This is the day I added the two new charts showing total tests versus positive test results, and the chart showing the trend in positive test results. So far, the new case increases closely track the increase in tests being given.
- July 14: As of July 22nd, this appears to be the “second peak” in cases. Hospitalizations, ICU beds, ventilators in use, and deaths, will lag this peak by 1-4 weeks. I expect this trend to continue and we will see declines in new cases. The Governor will later claim this was due to her face mask order! Also note that in June, IDM’s model projected 900 to 5000 new cases per day by mid-July. That did not happen. Disease models are utterly worthless pieces of crap unsuitable for any purpose.
- July 22: Governor announces that face masks are now mandatory for everyone age 5 and up, indoors at all times, and outdoors when social distancing is not practiced. Note that this bizarro rule: you can now be close to other people as long as you are wearing a face mask. This is disastrous public health messaging. It directly contradicts the CDC official statement: “To practice social or physical distancing, stay at least 6 feet (about 2 arms’ length) from other people who are not from your household in both indoor and outdoor spaces….If you are in a crowded space, try to keep 6 feet of space between yourself and others at all times, and wear a cloth face covering. Cloth face coverings are especially important in times when physical distancing is difficult. Pay attention to any physical guides, such as tape markings on floors or signs on walls, directing attendees to remain at least 6 feet apart from each other in lines or at other times. Allow other people 6 feet of space when you pass by them in both indoor and outdoor settings.”
In other words, stay six feet apart except … well, pretty much whenever as long as you are wearing a face mask. This is an utter disaster of public health quackery.
- Oregon re-emphasizes that “All Oregonians can work together to flatten the curve and lower our risk of getting it or giving it to others by:
- Covering our faces when six feet of physical distancing is not possible;
- Avoiding large crowds and limit our social gatherings;
- Washing our hands;
- Staying home if we’re sick.
The 2nd point does not apply to mass protests involving thousands of people in Portland in direct physical contact with one another.
Deaths per day in the United States
The link for this chart shows the current update (this screen shot taken on June 22), plus charts for selected U.S. states. Overall, deaths have been declining in the U.S. since mid April.
Here is a newer chart from the NY Times:
International Case Fatality Ratios
CFR’s are perhaps of interest in comparing how the disease has affected countries in different ways.
Economic Data Section
Apple Mobility Data
Click here to see Apple’s chart.
These charts show the trillions of dollars printed by the Federal Reserve. Longer term, this leads to inflation – first in asset prices (hence stock market going up) and then later in consumer price inflation, although there are multiple factors at work in determining future inflation.
TSA Passenger Data
TSA continues to count data on holidays and weekends but only releases the full set of data on Monday – Friday. Consequently, this is only updated Monday to Friday.
Passenger Count as percent of prior year
Passenger count as percent of same day the prior week
LINK TO OHA CHARTS
GO HERE for OHA official charts (new features from OHA).
OHA INFLUENZA PAGES
Here is a link to the Oregon government ILI pages. Chart of ED Visits for influenae-like illness (ILU) provided by OHA. “Covid-like” is a subset of ILI and is determined by clinical observations of symptoms. Neither it nor influenza diagnosis is based on a test per the CDC.
This is a snap shot from April, after which OHA discontinued making updates.
Highlights from the report at the first week of July – noting that hospitalizations have fallen to a low level and the combine mortality from pneumonia, influenza and Covid-19 has decreased to borderline epidemic levels.
Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth consecutive week during which a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC has been recorded. The percentage is currently at the epidemic threshold but will likely change as additional death certificates for deaths during recent weeks are processed.https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Here is a link to CDC ILINet State Activity Report
CDC produced chart of ILI for OREGON
- Link: Access to CLI presentation at ERs, % tests that are positive, New Cases, Cases traced to sources, hospitalization data by state and county, active monitoring capacity, and county indicators.
- Link: Demographic data, disease severity data
- Tests and outcomes by county
- Covid-19 press releases
Charts here may look slightly different than charts provided by others. This occurs because OHA sometimes updades past data. Some times I catch the changes, sometimes I do not and often, OHA just says they decremented a count by one, but does not say on what day that occurred – so I have to select a random day.