President Joe Biden’s Covid-19 team is torn over how to convey two seemingly conflicting ideas: That the nation is closer than ever to ending the health crisis, and yet remains in imminent danger from the virus.
For almost a year I have observed that everywhere ends up with roughly the same outcomes, given time.
I watched one state (Vermont) flatten the curve for almost all of 2020, only to succumb to a large rise in positive test results in early 2021. My state, Oregon, had a large spike in December into January, but has about the 4th lowest infection rate and mortality per population. But now, Oregon is seeing a rise in positive test results. With only 28% of the adult population having received at least one dose of vaccine, there are still many targets available for the virus to spread.
Time – given time, nearly everywhere domestically and internationally eventually ends up with similar outcomes in spite of, not because of, the mitigation measures employed. To a brain injured idiot with an untrained eye, it looks like our mitigations merely delayed the inevitable: eventually everywhere is hit about the same.
Dr Fauci says what many experts should have been saying often during the past year:
“We just don’t know,” Fauci said. “It’s not good news that it’s trending up instead of continuing to go down. The more you hang on, and don’t just throw caution to the wind, the better chance there is of preventing a surge of cases. It is not as bad as you might think but it’s certainly something to really pay attention to and be concerned about.”
It’s okay to not know. It’s not okay to make authoritative statements when you don’t know.