Hah hah – 61%, not 52%, not 67%, but 61%!
“There’s a 61% chance of recession this year, economists say—what that means for your money“ (cnbc.com)
What does 61% even mean? Best “guess” is they are “guessing” a slight likelihood of a recession.
My best guess is this forecast will be as accurate as a public health disease model, or in other words, useless.
(I am not making predictions – I have no idea what the economy will do in the near future – long term, it will likely be better than it was in the past.)
