Hah hah – 61%, not 52%, not 67%, but 61%!

There’s a 61% chance of recession this year, economists say—what that means for your money (cnbc.com)

What does 61% even mean? Best “guess” is they are “guessing” a slight likelihood of a recession.

My best guess is this forecast will be as accurate as a public health disease model, or in other words, useless.

(I am not making predictions – I have no idea what the economy will do in the near future – long term, it will likely be better than it was in the past.)