Reconciling ambitions for carbon neutrality with continuing dependence on fuel poses a big problem for the state’s refineries and policy makers.
Source: California Loves EVs But Will Be Stuck in Hybrid for Years – Bloomberg
Specifically, as they convert ICE vehicles to EVs, the demand for gas goes down. By 2035, they estimate demand for gas will be 33% of today’s refinery capacity. It is not possible to operate a refinery at 33% capacity due to the large, fixed costs. Further, the state basically has two groups of refineries – those in NorCal and those in SoCal, plus these refineries also produce aviation and jet fuel. As demand drops, some of these just close and the state may have supply disruptions.
This is a difficult business choice for figuring out how to ramp down while still being able to meet needs. Half of the cars in 2037 are estimated to still run-on gasoline.
