It was understood in 2006, and again in 2019 when WHO published a paper on pandemic respiratory viruses – and concluded that most mitigations do not work. What is old is now new again:
But what will perhaps be surprising to many is that England has actually had a similar rate of infection and a lower rate of Covid deaths during the Omicron wave – and since 19 July 2021, England’s “freedom day” – than Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, despite having far fewer mandatory restrictions, and none after 24 February. This “natural experiment” shows that having more mandates did not lead to better outcomes.
And also because it is now population levels of immunity (particularly in older age groups) – either through vaccination or natural infection– that really determines the level of deaths due to Covid. Restrictions make little difference in a highly immune population.
As I have said since the beginning – pandemics end through mass immunity, either from vaccination or having had the disease, or the virus mutates to a less virulent form.
This is ultimately what happened, and this pandemic is ending, like past pandemics, on its own.
“Experts” wish to believe they had a control knob for the disease but, when an overwhelming majority of the population has now had Covid, they never had any control.
But at least we are on the verge of a recession, the stock markets are crashing, supply chains are broken, kids’ education is messed up and on and on – caused by policy decisions, not the virus itself.