Modeled scenarios with faster relative growth rates (of Omicron as compared to Delta) indicate that a large surge of infections could begin in the U.S. in early January 2022 and that the peak daily number of new infections could exceed previous peaks. With low immune evasion, the surge could be lower and occur as late as April 2022. Multiple modeling groups in the United States, as well as those from other countries’ public health agencies, have identified similar trends
Peak day was January 13, 2022. Cases fell below 600k/day by February 1st and were in free fall.
The model had a large target zone – a 4-month window – and the peak came at the beginning of the window. As they say, “close enough for government work”. They hypothesized that the “peak daily number of new infections could exceed previous peaks”. They got that part right.