Just like the weather forecast but with zero accuracy:

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention launched its Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics on Tuesday. The center aims to be like the “National Weather Service for infectious diseases,” helping to guide decision-making at all levels.

Source: CDC launches forecasting center to be like a ‘National Weather Service for infectious diseases’ – CNN

Disease models have been wildly inaccurate throughout the pandemic. In Oregon, over a 3-month period, the weekly forecasts that modeled the disease just 3 weeks into the future, had the wrong sign 11 out of 13 times from the end of October to the start of February.

Neil Ferguson of ICL’s spring 2020 models said we could flatten the curve with mitigations; those were 100% false. He also forecast 2.2 million people dead in the U.S. by August 1, 2020. 2+ years later we are less than half that number.

The UW IHME’s model for the spring of 2020 was off in space – and resulted in my state shutting down all non-life-threatening health care access. The policy resulted in actual harms to many – and was based on the output of the fraudulent IHME models.

The “Centers for Disease Control” never had control over any aspect of the Covid-19 disease. Will the CDC’s new modeling group produce a report card on the failure of disease models?

By EdwardM

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