This is what they are now suggesting for Covid-19:

Viruses that cause pandemics often mutate to become less life threatening.

The 1918 flu pandemic lasted about 18 months and ended after either people had been exposed to the virus or it became less life threatening.


Historically, most pandemics last between 2 and a half to 3 and a half years.

Over time, pandemic viruses typically mutate and evolve into an endemic disease that circulates at lower, more manageable levels.

Source: How 1918 Flu Pandemic Ended and What It Means for COVID-19

I wrote this on my now private blog posts about Covid, way back in the first half of 2020. But I am an idiot with no relevant experience so what do I know?

Anyway, this thought is now mainstream.

This pandemic is ending the same way as the pandemic of 100 years ago – immunity and likely viral mutation to less bad. The only change is we now have vaccines that they did not have then. Yet the duration is still the same.

Corollary: All the pandemic policies accomplished little when we have the same outcome as 100 years go.  As we approach 2 years into this, the NPIs never worked. Someone important needs to point out that epidemiology failed and delivered little value. And they need to be held accountable for the destruction they wrought and the wreckage they left behind.

Update: Just read some epidemiologists are finlly acknowledging they have no idea what is going on. They have not provided useful guidance that made any difference in any of this since April of 2020. Sadly, it is a failed field of study, far more religion than science.

By EdwardM