OHSU says “about 22% of Oregonians are still vulnerable to infection” from the delta variant.
The effects of herd immunity for the delta variant are likely to take hold when about 85% of the population carries immunity from vaccination or recent infection, and that’s within sight in Oregon, Graven said. He forecasts that Oregon will reach that point around Dec. 26, although he anticipates there will be another 177,000 infections in Oregon before then.
This is similar to the forecast they issued in late August of 2021.
Of course, it’s yet another model – and disease models have been near useless. But, if this one turns out correct, then the pandemic is coming to end the way that most pandemics have previously ended: widespread immunity.
I have not yet seen the latest report. The prior edition forecast that almost 60% of the population will have had Covid-19 by end of this year. In spite of all we did, the outcome and duration is pretty much the same as past pandemics. (Unfortunately, OHSU appears to “disappear” prior forecasts so am unable, for now, to find the chart that showed 60% would have had Covid by end of year.)
UPDATE: The OHSU release.