Lock downs failed: “Australia reports 1,607 COVID-19 cases as states learn to live with virus”

Australia reported 1,607 new coronavirus cases on Sunday as states and territories gradually shift from trying to eliminate outbreaks to living with the virus.

Source: Australia reports 1,607 COVID-19 cases as states learn to live with virus | Reuters

As is true of all NPIs, every where eventually ends up with roughly the same out comes, given time. NPIs never stop a pandemic. The only way a pandemic ends is through immunity – from vaccination, from acquired immunity, or both, or the predominate virus eventually mutates to a less lethal form.

NPIs, per WHO and published papers, when they work at all, primarily delay the inevitable.

We now have high quality evidence out of Australia, an island nation where lock downs were enforced by police, police with dogs, on horses, in helicopters, and by the military – that lock downs are not a general solution. (Lock downs may work, when done during the first few weeks of spread. But once the disease is established in the community, lock downs do not appear to work.)

I am just a brain injured idiot with no relevant experience. I make observations and ask stupid questions – and point out the obvious.



Many Australians have had it with the penal colony locking them up for months on end. Australians were not permitted to travel more than 5km (about 3 miles) from their homes, were allowed “out” for just 1 hour per day to walk or jog, by themselves. Eventually, many reaching a break point: a mob breaks through police lines. (News report here. The reporter says police will begin arresting protesters after this. Basically, the government has gone to war against its own citizens.)

You cannot lock up entire population in a highly interconnected society and economic system for more than a few weeks, tops. And even then, you need metrics to show that it is actually working – and it did not work.